Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
